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Al-Nusrah Front rebrands itself again, merges with other groups
Analysis

Al-Nusrah Front rebrands itself again, merges with other groups

The militant group formerly known as the al-Nusrah Front has rebranded itself and merged with four other factions to create a group now formally known as Tahrir al-Sham (BBC Monitoring). This rebranding could possibly allow the group to introduce new tactics and capabilities, which were unavailable to it prior to the merger. I assess with high confidence that Tahrir al-Sham will not be defeated in 2017, due to the merger that has occurred. Continue reading

Colombia meeting may lead to speedier implementation of peace process
Analysis

Colombia meeting may lead to speedier implementation of peace process

Following the 27th murder of a Colombian community leader this year, Colombian officials and former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) met to discuss the implementation of the peace treaty and its obstacles. This may lead to improvements in the peace process, but it is still too early to determine with high confidence if the talks will lead to actual changes. Continue reading

Revised Trump administration statements indicate possible policy change on climate change
Analysis

Revised Trump administration statements indicate possible policy change on climate change

Regardless of past indications, the Trump administration’s stance toward the Paris Climate Agreement appears to have shifted following an open letter from several of the country’s largest companies and wealthiest investors. This shift potentially indicates an inclination by the Trump administration to acquiesce to pressure from corporate interests. In light of this, it can be stated with moderate confidence that President Donald Trump will not remove America from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2018. Continue reading

Civil war highly likely in the Central African Republic despite UN active peacekeeping
Analysis

Civil war highly likely in the Central African Republic despite UN active peacekeeping

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, the African Union, and the European Union’s French Mission have all participated in efforts to prevent armed conflict between Muslim and Christian rebel groups in the Central African Republic. However, it can be stated with high confidence that a civil war will flare up in the country in 2017. Continue reading