The directors of the CIB’s six Critical Mission Centers (CMCs) provided up-to-date briefs on the Russian invasion of Ukraine at Coastal Carolina University’s inaugural INTEL Day. Hosted by the Department of Intelligence and Security Studies and the Edwards College at Coastal, the event took place on Saturday, April 23, 2022. It was attended by over …
The CIB is pleased to announce the publication of the eighth issue of The Intelligence Review, a compendium of useful analytical forecasts by CIB analysts, which relate to some of the most pressing questions in global security today. The volume is the product of a transatlantic collaboration between the CIB and the European Intelligence Academy (EIA), a network of intelligence studies scholars, specialists and students, who are dedicated to promoting international collaboration in intelligence scholarship and research.
THE CIB HAS RELAUNCHED its highly successful Weekly Intelligence Brief (WIB), a publication containing descriptive intelligence products, which is modeled on the President’s Daily Brief. The idea behind the WIB was first proposed in the spring of 2017 by CIB Americas Desk analyst Lindsey Hamilton. In September 2017, Lindsey became the first Editor-in-Chief of the WIB. On October 18, 2017, the CIB published the first issue of the WIB, with articles submitted by analysts in the CIB’s Africa, Asia, Americas and Cyber Desks. Now, in the fall 2020 semester, the WIB has entered the second period of its existence with a new Editor-in-Chief, CIB Senior Analyst Hannah Clegg. She is assisted by associate editors Morgan-McKay Hoppmann (Senior Analyst, CIB Asia Desk) and Jakcon Hauf (CIB Executive Director).
The CIB will be responding to the public health requirements of the Coronavirus pandemic by holding its meetings online in the Fall 2020 semester. The decision was taken by the CIB’s Executive Team in early August, in light of the threat that the pandemic poses to the health of students and faculty at Coastal Carolina University. For this reason, the CIB Executive Team invites the organization’s membership to meet every Wednesday from 6:00 to 7:00pm on the Zoom software platform. The link and access information for meetings will be sent ahead of time via email.
UNLIKE PAST SEMESTERS, MEMBERS OF the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) did not meet for the CIB Banquet, which marks the culmination of the spring 2020 semester. The Banquet takes places to recognize the hard work of members, analysts, senior analysts and members, and to renew their pledge to make the organization even stronger in the coming year. This would have been the ninth CIB Banquet, in the tradition of the group’s first-ever banquet, which was held in May of 2016. But the coronavirus pandemic did not stop the CIB from doing its work, and the organization was still able to present this semester’s awards, albeit in virtual fashion.
In the latest development regarding the water rights debate between Egypt and Ethiopia centered around the Nile River and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia has announced the signing of a new contract to construct another dam in its northern Tigray region. This development is occurring simultaneously with Egypt’s launching of an international campaign of sorts to gain support in opposition of the GERD completion. We therefore assess with high confidence that this will continue to add to the volatile relations between the two countries.
The conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could interfere with the government’s ability to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. A report by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) warns that the latest violence in the eastern DRC could have serious consequences for the fight against coronavirus. It can be stated with high confidence that an increase in displaced population numbers, due to violence, will significantly increase the spread of COVID-19 in the DRC.
In the changing climate of our planet, the loss of the Arctic ice cap has increased the accessibility to resources located inside the Arctic Theater. The result of this change is that the Russian government, among other nations, including Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the United States, has taken an interest in the economic and military opportunities on the top of the world. In a push to control the region, the Russian government has taken a more aggressive approach in military innovation and expansion into the region over the past 30 years. It can be stated with moderate confidence that the Russian government will continue to push military advancements and its expansion in the Arctic Theater in 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic.
WBTW NEWS 13, THE CBS-AFFILIATED television station in Florence, South Carolina, has featured the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) COVID-19 Intelligence Project in a news report. The report, by WBTW reporter Lauren Crawford, was aired on WBTW’s Evening News program on Thursday, April 9. It highlighted the CIB’s new project, which allows Intelligence and National Security Studies students at Coastal Carolina University to track and analyze the worldwide outbreak of the pandemic on a real-time basis.
THE SAUDI ARABIAN-LED COALITION of Arab states, which been fighting in support of the Yemeni government and against the Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels, has placed into effect a unilateral two-week ceasefire amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The unilateral ceasefire is expected to suspend hostilities on the alliance’s part, which will make it the first nationwide truce to take hold in Yemen during the five-year war. This announcement could potentially indicate that the war in Yemen may enter a long-standing intermission, and even help bring an end to the war.
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) global pandemic has created economic and territorial challenges for Mexican drug cartels. These challenges will likely hinder the growth of Mexican drug cartels and assist the Mexican government in its efforts to dismantle the illicit drug markets as the virus continues to spread in the Americas.
WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN largely absent from the public eye, confusion has set in with cases of COVID-19 increasing every day. Recent federal intervention is proving to be more reactionary than proactive. Consequently, the majority of measures taken to stop the spread of COVID-19 has been taken by local governments, with Moscow setting the example. Given the continuing nature of this situation, we predict with moderate-to-high confidence a national state of emergency will be declared in the next two weeks.
The CIB has officially launched the CIB COVID-19 Intelligence Project, an open-source intelligence collective, whose goal is to provide descriptive and estimative analyses of the complex medical, social, economic and political effects of this global crisis. The results of our work are now being aired weekly on our CIB COVID-19 Intelligence Report podcast, which becomes available every Wednesday. The podcast is produced and presented by CIB faculty mentor Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis, and features reports and appearances by a host of CIB analyst and senior analysts.
By Nikki Pfadt, Senior Analyst, Subsaharan Africa Section Analytical Question: State of democracy and human rights in Ethiopia | Date: 26 March 2020 International organizations have recently called upon the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, to end an internet shutdown in the Oromia region of the country that is blocking millions of Ethiopians from …
Over the past few of weeks, COVID-19, the life-threatening disease that is caused by SARS-COV-2 (novel coronavirus) has wreaked havoc on the United States. Thus far, this pandemic has brought unprecedented orders by public officials, such as school cancellations, restaurant and bar closures, and even limitations as to when and who can venture in public. This new reality raises the question of what extent federal and local governments will go to in order to maintain virus-containment and public order. This question has brought the term martial law into the spotlight. Martial law is commonly defined as the act of suspending all civil authority, such as state and local governments, and placing the areas in their jurisdiction under the control of the US Armed Forces. In addition, the implementation of martial law can include the temporarily suspension of various constitutional rights.
For countries that are currently enforcing strict national lockdowns, such as Italy, Spain, and previously China, it can be stated with low confidence that non-essential international travel bans will last for at least three to five months. If countries like the US and the UK, which have not yet imposed strict measures, go into a national lockdown within the next week, it can be stated with low confidence that the travel ban will last for the next three to five months. However, if such countries choose not to implement lockdowns, it can be stated with low confidence that travel bans will last no more than two months. For countries that have seen COVID-19 cases, but have not been majorly effected, nor have implement lockdowns, such as many of the Latin American and African countries, it can be stated with low confidence that travel bans will last no longer than two months.
Following a seven month ban of social media, the Indian government has eased Internet restrictions in India’s Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory. We assess, with moderate confidence, that this will result in decreased political stability and increased police activity in the Jammu and Kashmir region, which will likely result in increased ethnic tensions in the region. On March 4, the Home Department of Jammu and Kashmir released an order restricting Internet speed to 2G. As the new order does not include “white-listed” websites or place restrictions on Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) as past orders did, it marks the end of a ban on social media sites that had been in place since August 2019. The current order is active through March 17, unless modified earlier.
The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the US Marshalls Service have reportedly arrested Jessica Johana Oseguera Gonzalez, aka “La Negra,” the daughter of the Jalisco New Generacion Cartel’s (CJNG) leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. This arrest, which took place on , on February 27, may point to an increased focus by both US and Mexican officials on dissolving drug trafficking organizations along their shared border. Oseguera Cervantes was attempting to visit her brother, Rubén Osegura-González following his extradition to the US. His recent extradition may indicate renewed counter-narcotics cooperation between the US and Mexico. While it is possible that future endeavors will aim to neutralize drug trafficking across the US- Mexico border, it is too soon to state with confidence that future operations will prioritize detaining the family members of prominent drug trafficking organizations.
NEARLY THE ENTIRE EXECUTIVE of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) attended the 2020 Citadel Intelligence Ethics Conference, which was held in Charleston, South Carolina, on February 11-12. This interdisciplinary conference featured a multitude of presentations on the various aspects of intelligence practiced in the Western liberal-democratic context. Two members of the CIB delegation to the conference, Shannon Brophy and Kaitlin Presnell, were among the conference speakers. The two CIB executives presented their research, which was entitled “Should the United States Collect Intelligence on its Close Allies?”. The presentation encompassed an analysis of the bilateral intelligence relationship between the United States and the members of the Five-Eyes, Nine-Eyes, and Fourteen-Eyes intelligence alliances. It also examined recent reports that the United States may not be conducting human intelligence operations on the United Arab Emirates.
It is certain that Iran will continue to retaliate to the killing of Soleimani; however, the attack on the Ukrainian plane has served as a significant barrier for Iranian plans. With tensions of a potential civil war and the world powers watching closely, Iran appears to be backing off momentarily. Although it is quieter than before, we believe more attacks will be seen in the upcoming months. It can be stated with moderate confidence that Iran will continue its attempt to push US forces out of Iraq by proceeding to sporadically attack US bases in the region. It can also be stated with moderate confidence that we may see the awakening of some form of sleeper cells, to include cyber, within the US in the future.
During regular academic semesters, members and supporters of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief gather once a week to get to know each other, discuss current events and participate in fun activities, like the CIB weekly news trivia quiz. For the spring 2020 semester, the CIB Executive Team invites the organization’s membership and prospective membership to meet every Wednesday from 6:00 to 7:00pm in room CSCC 300 of the Coastal Science Center Complex.