For the third time in a row, members of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) did not meet face-to-face for the CIB Banquet, which marks the culmination of the semester. The virtual meeting, however, was filled with excitement about the organization’s pending return to face-to-face meetings in the fall of 2021. The Banquet takes place to …
By Nikki Pfadt, Senior Analyst, Subsaharan Africa Section Analytical Question: State of democracy and human rights in Ethiopia | Date: 26 March 2020 International organizations have recently called upon the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, to end an internet shutdown in the Oromia region of the country that is blocking millions of Ethiopians from …
Over the past few of weeks, COVID-19, the life-threatening disease that is caused by SARS-COV-2 (novel coronavirus) has wreaked havoc on the United States. Thus far, this pandemic has brought unprecedented orders by public officials, such as school cancellations, restaurant and bar closures, and even limitations as to when and who can venture in public. This new reality raises the question of what extent federal and local governments will go to in order to maintain virus-containment and public order. This question has brought the term martial law into the spotlight. Martial law is commonly defined as the act of suspending all civil authority, such as state and local governments, and placing the areas in their jurisdiction under the control of the US Armed Forces. In addition, the implementation of martial law can include the temporarily suspension of various constitutional rights.
For countries that are currently enforcing strict national lockdowns, such as Italy, Spain, and previously China, it can be stated with low confidence that non-essential international travel bans will last for at least three to five months. If countries like the US and the UK, which have not yet imposed strict measures, go into a national lockdown within the next week, it can be stated with low confidence that the travel ban will last for the next three to five months. However, if such countries choose not to implement lockdowns, it can be stated with low confidence that travel bans will last no more than two months. For countries that have seen COVID-19 cases, but have not been majorly effected, nor have implement lockdowns, such as many of the Latin American and African countries, it can be stated with low confidence that travel bans will last no longer than two months.
Following a seven month ban of social media, the Indian government has eased Internet restrictions in India’s Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory. We assess, with moderate confidence, that this will result in decreased political stability and increased police activity in the Jammu and Kashmir region, which will likely result in increased ethnic tensions in the region. On March 4, the Home Department of Jammu and Kashmir released an order restricting Internet speed to 2G. As the new order does not include “white-listed” websites or place restrictions on Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) as past orders did, it marks the end of a ban on social media sites that had been in place since August 2019. The current order is active through March 17, unless modified earlier.
The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the US Marshalls Service have reportedly arrested Jessica Johana Oseguera Gonzalez, aka “La Negra,” the daughter of the Jalisco New Generacion Cartel’s (CJNG) leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. This arrest, which took place on , on February 27, may point to an increased focus by both US and Mexican officials on dissolving drug trafficking organizations along their shared border. Oseguera Cervantes was attempting to visit her brother, Rubén Osegura-González following his extradition to the US. His recent extradition may indicate renewed counter-narcotics cooperation between the US and Mexico. While it is possible that future endeavors will aim to neutralize drug trafficking across the US- Mexico border, it is too soon to state with confidence that future operations will prioritize detaining the family members of prominent drug trafficking organizations.
NEARLY THE ENTIRE EXECUTIVE of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) attended the 2020 Citadel Intelligence Ethics Conference, which was held in Charleston, South Carolina, on February 11-12. This interdisciplinary conference featured a multitude of presentations on the various aspects of intelligence practiced in the Western liberal-democratic context. Two members of the CIB delegation to the conference, Shannon Brophy and Kaitlin Presnell, were among the conference speakers. The two CIB executives presented their research, which was entitled “Should the United States Collect Intelligence on its Close Allies?”. The presentation encompassed an analysis of the bilateral intelligence relationship between the United States and the members of the Five-Eyes, Nine-Eyes, and Fourteen-Eyes intelligence alliances. It also examined recent reports that the United States may not be conducting human intelligence operations on the United Arab Emirates.
It is certain that Iran will continue to retaliate to the killing of Soleimani; however, the attack on the Ukrainian plane has served as a significant barrier for Iranian plans. With tensions of a potential civil war and the world powers watching closely, Iran appears to be backing off momentarily. Although it is quieter than before, we believe more attacks will be seen in the upcoming months. It can be stated with moderate confidence that Iran will continue its attempt to push US forces out of Iraq by proceeding to sporadically attack US bases in the region. It can also be stated with moderate confidence that we may see the awakening of some form of sleeper cells, to include cyber, within the US in the future.
During regular academic semesters, members and supporters of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief gather once a week to get to know each other, discuss current events and participate in fun activities, like the CIB weekly news trivia quiz. For the spring 2020 semester, the CIB Executive Team invites the organization’s membership and prospective membership to meet every Wednesday from 6:00 to 7:00pm in room CSCC 300 of the Coastal Science Center Complex.
Close to 100 people gathered at the Coastal Carolina University’s Burroughs and Chapin Building on the morning of Thursday, December 5, for the seventh Chanticleer Intelligence Brief Symposium. The event featured information about the achievements of several CIB current and former analysis, presented by the analysts themselves before an engaged and curious audience that included current and former members of the Intelligence Community.
Members of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) met for the culmination of the semester on December 4, to recognize the hard work of officers, analysts and members, and to renew their pledge to make the organization even stronger in the coming year. This was the eighth CIB Banquet, in the tradition of the group’s first-ever banquet, which was held in May of 2016. As always, the event featured free food provided to all CIB members, which was enjoyed in a relaxed atmosphere.
The CIB is pleased to announce the publication of the seventh issue of The Intelligence Review, a compendium of useful analytical forecasts by CIB analysts, which relate to some of the most pressing questions in global security today. The volume is the product of a transatlantic collaboration between the CIB and the European Intelligence Academy …
Last summer, Fabio Molano, a longtime CIB executive who has been serving as director of the organization since the fall of 2017, completed an internship with Mercom Corporation. Mercom is a technology firm specializing in providing mission-critical operations support to the United States government. We recently spoke with Fabio and asked him some questions about his experience at Mercom and the way his CIB experience at CCU helped him to respond to the challenges of that competitive internship.
A militia ambush in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has left three people dead, and seven others injured. The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) took responsibility for the attack. Despite this recent ADF attack, it can be stated with moderate confidence that Sunni militant groups will not gain a stronghold in the eastern DRC in 2019.
In the summer of 2019, Joseph Cain, longtime CIB executive and head of the organization’s Latin America Desk, was accepted in the Cambridge Security Initiative’s International Security and Intelligence (ISI) program. This elite program takes place at the University of Cambridge in England and features the participation of top officials from the CIA, MI6, NSA, and other Western intelligence agencies. Last summer’s ISI featured talks by Chris Inglis, former deputy director of NSA, and Sir Richard Dearlove, former director of MI6.
Soon after graduating from Coastal Carolina University with a degree in Intelligence and National Security Studies (August 2019, summa cum laude), CIB executive Tyra Bjorlo was awarded a prestigious internship to research al-Qaeda with the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in Washington, DC. Internships with the AEI’s Critical Threats Project are considered some of the most competitive in the nation’s capital.
During regular academic semesters, members and supporters of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief gather once a week to get to know each other, discuss current events and participate in fun activities, like the CIB weekly news trivia quiz. For the fall 2019 semester, the CIB Executive Team invites the organization’s membership and prospective membership to meet …
Jack Lincoln, a graduate of the CIB’s Iran desk, was recognized for his research at the annual conference of the International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) in June. Lincoln, from Glen Head, New York, joined the CIB during his freshman year at Coastal Carolina University. His research, titled “What is the Current State of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps?” appeared in Volume 2, Issue 3, of The Intelligence Review.
The seventh episode of the CIB Intelligence Report, the television show that covers the latest developments in the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief, is now online. In this latest episode, the CIB’s Recruitment Officer, Tyra Bjorlo hosts Analysts Joseph Cain, Kaitlin Presnell, and Amber Fields.
Over 80 people gathered at the Coastal Carolina University’s Burroughs and Chapin Building on the morning of Thursday, May 2, for the sixth Chanticleer Intelligence Brief Symposium. The event featured timely updates about some of the world’s most critical hot spots by a panel of CIB Analysts. It was held in conjunction with the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at Coastal Carolina University, and supported by the Edwards College of Humanities and Fine Arts at CCU.
Members of the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) met for the culmination of the semester on May 1, to recognize the hard work of officers, analysts and members, and to renew their pledge to make the organization even stronger in the coming year. This was the seventh CIB Banquet, in the tradition of the group’s first-ever banquet, which was held in May of 2016. As always, the event featured free food provided to all CIB members, which was enjoyed in a relaxed atmosphere.