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Tensions rise among Mexican drug cartels amidst pandemic
Analysis

Tensions rise among Mexican drug cartels amidst pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic has created economic and territorial challenges for Mexican drug cartels. These challenges are likely to hinder the growth of Mexican drug cartels and continue to raise tensions within the illicit drug markets, as the virus continues to affect cartel profits. The Mexican government has been fighting the war against the drug cartels for the past several decades. The emergence of the coronavirus is presenting new and unexpected complications in narcotics sales, causing economic impediments for the cartels. Continue reading

US Announces Sudan’s removal from terrorism sponsors list
Analysis

US Announces Sudan’s removal from terrorism sponsors list

ON OCTOBER 19, 2020, the United States announced plans to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, after a 27-year designation. The designation of Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism dates to 1993 when Sudan was accused of having hosted members of terrorist organizations, such as Hezbollah and al Qaeda, including its leader, Osama bin Laden. Sudan is one of four nations designated by the United States as a state sponsor of terrorism, along with Iran, North Korea, and Syria. This severely impedes Sudan from having access to loans, foreign investment, and debt relief.[1] We predict with low to moderate confidence that Sudan’s removal from the state sponsors of terrorism list will help Sudan revive its economy and bolster its transition to democratic rule. Continue reading

Iraqi demonstrations set to resume on the one-year anniversary of the ‘October Revolution’
Analysis

Iraqi demonstrations set to resume on the one-year anniversary of the ‘October Revolution’

THE ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY of the “October Revolution” in Iraq is very likely to devolve into street violence as sit-ins and demonstrations are set to resume. The source of this potential stems from three primary groups of actors: Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and their supporters, Sadrists, and the protesters. These demonstrations and violence are unlikely to overthrow the government. However, they may damage the public image of the Kadhimi government. Continue reading

CIB relaunches Weekly Intelligence Brief with new leadership
News

CIB relaunches Weekly Intelligence Brief with new leadership

THE CIB HAS RELAUNCHED its highly successful Weekly Intelligence Brief (WIB), a publication containing descriptive intelligence products, which is modeled on the President’s Daily Brief. The idea behind the WIB was first proposed in the spring of 2017 by CIB Americas Desk analyst Lindsey Hamilton. In September 2017, Lindsey became the first Editor-in-Chief of the WIB. On October 18, 2017, the CIB published the first issue of the WIB, with articles submitted by analysts in the CIB’s Africa, Asia, Americas and Cyber Desks. Now, in the fall 2020 semester, the WIB has entered the second period of its existence with a new Editor-in-Chief, CIB Senior Analyst Hannah Clegg. She is assisted by associate editors Morgan-McKay Hoppmann (Senior Analyst, CIB Asia Desk) and Jakcon Hauf (CIB Executive Director). Continue reading

CIB to meet virtually on Zoom in Fall 2020
meetings

CIB to meet virtually on Zoom in Fall 2020

The CIB will be responding to the public health requirements of the Coronavirus pandemic by holding its meetings online in the Fall 2020 semester. The decision was taken by the CIB’s Executive Team in early August, in light of the threat that the pandemic poses to the health of students and faculty at Coastal Carolina University. For this reason, the CIB Executive Team invites the organization’s membership to meet every Wednesday from 6:00 to 7:00pm on the Zoom software platform. The link and access information for meetings will be sent ahead of time via email. Continue reading

CIB presents awards virtually amidst coronavirus pandemic
Awards

CIB presents awards virtually amidst coronavirus pandemic

UNLIKE PAST SEMESTERS, MEMBERS OF the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) did not meet for the CIB Banquet, which marks the culmination of the spring 2020 semester. The Banquet takes places to recognize the hard work of members, analysts, senior analysts and members, and to renew their pledge to make the organization even stronger in the coming year. This would have been the ninth CIB Banquet, in the tradition of the group’s first-ever banquet, which was held in May of 2016. But the coronavirus pandemic did not stop the CIB from doing its work, and the organization was still able to present this semester’s awards, albeit in virtual fashion. Continue reading

Tension escalates between Egypt and Ethiopia over water rights
Analysis

Tension escalates between Egypt and Ethiopia over water rights

In the latest development regarding the water rights debate between Egypt and Ethiopia centered around the Nile River and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia has announced the signing of a new contract to construct another dam in its northern Tigray region. This development is occurring simultaneously with Egypt’s launching of an international campaign of sorts to gain support in opposition of the GERD completion. We therefore assess with high confidence that this will continue to add to the volatile relations between the two countries. Continue reading

Ongoing insecurity in eastern DRC could derail coronavirus containment
Analysis

Ongoing insecurity in eastern DRC could derail coronavirus containment

The conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could interfere with  the government’s ability to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. A report by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) warns that the latest violence in the eastern DRC could have serious consequences for the fight against coronavirus. It can be stated with high confidence that an increase in displaced population numbers, due to violence, will significantly increase the spread of COVID-19 in the DRC. Continue reading

US meat plant closures create long-lasting impact on food supply
Analysis

US meat plant closures create long-lasting impact on food supply

With cases of COVID-19 in United States nearing 950,000, the country’s meat supply may experience a decline with major meat plants closing across the country. A Smithfield food plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, one of the country’s largest pork-producing plants, closed indefinitely after nearly 785 of its employees tested positive for COVID-19. Smithfield is one of several meat-producing companies. Two other major companies, JBS USA and Tyson Foods Inc., have also suspended or cut back on production in recent weeks, due to the detection of COVID-19 cases in their food-processing facilities. We can state with high confidence that the closure of the meat plants will negatively impact the food supply in the United States for a prolonged period. Continue reading

Russia continues military activities in the Arctic despite coronavirus outbreak
Analysis

Russia continues military activities in the Arctic despite coronavirus outbreak

In the changing climate of our planet, the loss of the Arctic ice cap has increased the accessibility to resources located inside the Arctic Theater. The result of this change is that the Russian government, among other nations, including Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the United States, has taken an interest in the economic and military opportunities on the top of the world. In a push to control the region, the Russian government has taken a more aggressive approach in military innovation and expansion into the region over the past 30 years. It can be stated with moderate confidence that the Russian government will continue to push military advancements and its expansion in the Arctic Theater in 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Continue reading

CBS News 13 features CIB’s COVID-19 Intelligence Project
interviews

CBS News 13 features CIB’s COVID-19 Intelligence Project

WBTW NEWS 13, THE CBS-AFFILIATED television station in Florence, South Carolina, has featured the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) COVID-19 Intelligence Project in a news report. The report, by WBTW reporter Lauren Crawford, was aired on WBTW’s Evening News program on Thursday, April 9. It highlighted the CIB’s new project, which allows Intelligence and National Security Studies students at Coastal Carolina University to track and analyze the worldwide outbreak of the pandemic on a real-time basis. Continue reading

Saudi-led coalition calls for two-week ceasefire in Yemen amidst COVID-19 pandemic
Analysis

Saudi-led coalition calls for two-week ceasefire in Yemen amidst COVID-19 pandemic

THE SAUDI ARABIAN-LED COALITION of Arab states, which been fighting in support of the Yemeni government and against the Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels, has placed  into effect a unilateral two-week ceasefire amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The unilateral ceasefire is expected to suspend hostilities on the alliance’s part, which will make it the first nationwide truce to take hold in Yemen during the five-year war. This announcement could potentially indicate that the war in Yemen may enter a long-standing intermission, and even help bring an end to the war. Continue reading

Russia’s federal states take control amid coronavirus pandemic
Analysis

Russia’s federal states take control amid coronavirus pandemic

WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN largely absent from the public eye, confusion has set in with cases of COVID-19 increasing every day. Recent federal intervention is proving to be more reactionary than proactive. Consequently, the majority of measures taken to stop the spread of COVID-19 has been taken by local governments, with Moscow setting the example. Given the continuing nature of this situation, we predict with moderate-to-high confidence a national state of emergency will be declared in the next two weeks. Continue reading

CIB launches new COVID-19 Intelligence Project and podcast
COVID-19 Intelligence Project / Podcasts

CIB launches new COVID-19 Intelligence Project and podcast

The CIB has officially launched the CIB COVID-19 Intelligence Project, an open-source intelligence collective, whose goal is to provide descriptive and estimative analyses of the complex medical, social, economic and political effects of this global crisis. The results of our work are now being aired weekly on our CIB COVID-19 Intelligence Report podcast, which becomes available every Wednesday. The podcast is produced and presented by CIB faculty mentor Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis, and features reports and appearances by a host of CIB analyst and senior analysts. Continue reading

Could martial law be imposed on the US due to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Analysis

Could martial law be imposed on the US due to the COVID-19 pandemic?

Over the past few of weeks, COVID-19, the life-threatening disease that is caused by SARS-COV-2 (novel coronavirus) has wreaked havoc on the United States. Thus far, this pandemic has brought unprecedented orders by public officials, such as school cancellations, restaurant and bar closures, and even limitations as to when and who can venture in public. This new reality raises the question of what extent federal and local governments will go to in order to maintain virus-containment and public order. This question has brought the term martial law into the spotlight. Martial law is commonly defined as the act of suspending all civil authority, such as state and local governments, and placing the areas in their jurisdiction under the control of the US Armed Forces. In addition, the implementation of martial law can include the temporarily suspension of various constitutional rights. Continue reading

COVID-19: Calculating the duration and effectiveness of non-essential international travel bans
Analysis

COVID-19: Calculating the duration and effectiveness of non-essential international travel bans

For countries that are currently enforcing strict national lockdowns, such as Italy, Spain, and previously China, it can be stated with low confidence that non-essential international travel bans will last for at least three to five months. If countries like the US and the UK, which have not yet imposed strict measures, go into a national lockdown within the next week, it can be stated with low confidence that the travel ban will last for the next three to five months. However, if such countries choose not to implement lockdowns, it can be stated with low confidence that travel bans will last no more than two months. For countries that have seen COVID-19 cases, but have not been majorly effected, nor have implement lockdowns, such as many of the Latin American and African countries, it can be stated with low confidence that travel bans will last no longer than two months. Continue reading

Ease of Internet restrictions in Jammu and Kashmir may lead to heightened ethnic tensions
Analysis

Ease of Internet restrictions in Jammu and Kashmir may lead to heightened ethnic tensions

Following a seven month ban of social media, the Indian government has eased Internet restrictions in India’s Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory. We assess, with moderate confidence, that this will result in decreased political stability and increased police activity in the Jammu and Kashmir region, which will likely result in increased ethnic tensions in the region. On March 4, the Home Department of Jammu and Kashmir released an order restricting Internet speed to 2G. As the new order does not include “white-listed” websites or place restrictions on Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) as past orders did, it marks the end of a ban on social media sites that had been in place since August 2019. The current order is active through March 17, unless modified earlier. Continue reading

Arrest warrants indicate dissolving status of drug trafficking organization leadership
Analysis

Arrest warrants indicate dissolving status of drug trafficking organization leadership

The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the US Marshalls Service have reportedly arrested Jessica Johana Oseguera Gonzalez, aka “La Negra,” the daughter of the Jalisco New Generacion Cartel’s (CJNG) leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes. This arrest, which took place on , on February 27, may point to an increased focus by both US and Mexican officials on dissolving drug trafficking organizations along their shared border. Oseguera Cervantes was attempting to visit her brother, Rubén Osegura-González[1] following his extradition to the US. His recent extradition may indicate renewed counter-narcotics cooperation between the US and Mexico. While it is possible that future endeavors will aim to neutralize drug trafficking across the US- Mexico border, it is too soon to state with confidence that future operations will prioritize detaining the family members of prominent drug trafficking organizations. Continue reading