The European Union’s executive branch, the European Commission, is threatening legal action against Poland if it continues to refuse to accommodate asylum seekers under the European Union’s migration plan (European Commission 2017). Poland is unlikely to change its position on accepting more migrants. Warsaw’s stance may prompt legal action from the European Union, which will only worsen an already declining relationship between the two.
The militant group formerly known as the al-Nusrah Front has rebranded itself and merged with four other factions to create a group now formally known as Tahrir al-Sham (BBC Monitoring). This rebranding could possibly allow the group to introduce new tactics and capabilities, which were unavailable to it prior to the merger. I assess with high confidence that Tahrir al-Sham will not be defeated in 2017, due to the merger that has occurred.
Following the 27th murder of a Colombian community leader this year, Colombian officials and former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) met to discuss the implementation of the peace treaty and its obstacles. This may lead to improvements in the peace process, but it is still too early to determine with high confidence if the talks will lead to actual changes.
As Islamic State operatives have been pushed from the coastal town of Sirte into the Libyan Desert, there have been several reports of attacks on water and oil pipelines. The group, therefore, continues to pose a significant threat as it increasingly uses unconventional means to undermine Libyan security, despite losing its remaining territory in Libya.
Regardless of past indications, the Trump administration’s stance toward the Paris Climate Agreement appears to have shifted following an open letter from several of the country’s largest companies and wealthiest investors. This shift potentially indicates an inclination by the Trump administration to acquiesce to pressure from corporate interests. In light of this, it can be stated with moderate confidence that President Donald Trump will not remove America from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2018.
The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, the African Union, and the European Union’s French Mission have all participated in efforts to prevent armed conflict between Muslim and Christian rebel groups in the Central African Republic. However, it can be stated with high confidence that a civil war will flare up in the country in 2017.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) recently passed new sanctions against North Korea as a result of Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear test on September 9, 2016. The sanctions resulted in a verbose response by the North Korean government directed at the UNSC and the United States (US). It can be established with high confidence that such rhetoric is usual and sanctions will not have any serious effect for months, thus solidifying the view that the North Korean regime will remain stable throughout 2016.
On Wednesday November 30, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to a cut in oil production. A stipulation of the deal was that Nigeria, a member of OPEC, is to be exempted from the oil cut. With Nigeria’s reprieve and Angolan participation, it can be said with moderate confidence that, depending on the severity of the Angolan production cut, Nigeria may once again become Africa’s top oil producer by January of 2017.
Ten people with reported ties to the Islamic State were arrested in Russia over the weekend. The planned attacks come in the wake of Russia’s recent bombardment of Syria, and this development adds confidence to the statement that Russia’s internal security has suffered as a result of their involvement in the Syrian Civil War.
Muslim protests against the Christian governor of Jakarta show that ISIS has risen in popularity and will continue to be a concern in Indonesia even as it weakens in Iraq and Syria.