Colombia meeting may lead to speedier implementation of peace process
Analysis

Colombia meeting may lead to speedier implementation of peace process

Following the 27th murder of a Colombian community leader this year, Colombian officials and former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) met to discuss the implementation of the peace treaty and its obstacles. This may lead to improvements in the peace process, but it is still too early to determine with high confidence if the talks will lead to actual changes. Continue reading

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Islamic State shifts focus from territory to infrastructure in Libya
Analysis

Islamic State shifts focus from territory to infrastructure in Libya

As Islamic State operatives have been pushed from the coastal town of Sirte into the Libyan Desert, there have been several reports of attacks on water and oil pipelines. The group, therefore, continues to pose a significant threat as it increasingly uses unconventional means to undermine Libyan security, despite losing its remaining territory in Libya. Continue reading

Revised Trump administration statements indicate possible policy change on climate change
Analysis

Revised Trump administration statements indicate possible policy change on climate change

Regardless of past indications, the Trump administration’s stance toward the Paris Climate Agreement appears to have shifted following an open letter from several of the country’s largest companies and wealthiest investors. This shift potentially indicates an inclination by the Trump administration to acquiesce to pressure from corporate interests. In light of this, it can be stated with moderate confidence that President Donald Trump will not remove America from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2018. Continue reading

Civil war highly likely in the Central African Republic despite UN active peacekeeping
Analysis

Civil war highly likely in the Central African Republic despite UN active peacekeeping

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, the African Union, and the European Union’s French Mission have all participated in efforts to prevent armed conflict between Muslim and Christian rebel groups in the Central African Republic. However, it can be stated with high confidence that a civil war will flare up in the country in 2017. Continue reading

North Korea responds to sanctions by the UN Security Council
Analysis

North Korea responds to sanctions by the UN Security Council

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) recently passed new sanctions against North Korea as a result of Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear test on September 9, 2016. The sanctions resulted in a verbose response by the North Korean government directed at the UNSC and the United States (US). It can be established with high confidence that such rhetoric is usual and sanctions will not have any serious effect for months, thus solidifying the view that the North Korean regime will remain stable throughout 2016. Continue reading

Nigeria exempted from OPEC oil production cut
Analysis

Nigeria exempted from OPEC oil production cut

On Wednesday November 30, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to a cut in oil production. A stipulation of the deal was that Nigeria, a member of OPEC, is to be exempted from the oil cut. With Nigeria’s reprieve and Angolan participation, it can be said with moderate confidence that, depending on the severity of the Angolan production cut, Nigeria may once again become Africa’s top oil producer by January of 2017. Continue reading

Iraqi Kurdish leader signals independence talks with Baghdad after Mosul falls
Analysis

Iraqi Kurdish leader signals independence talks with Baghdad after Mosul falls

With the joint operation to clear the Islamic state from its territorial control of Mosul in full swing, a prominent Iraqi Kurdish leader has signified that the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) will pressure Baghdad for its independence following the battle. This seems to signify that, despite cooperation between the KRG and the Iraqi Government in their joint endeavor to clear ISIS from Mosul, the autonomous Kurdish government is still intent on seeking an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Continue reading

Arrests of radicals in Kazakhstan indicates growth in ISIS popularity in Central Asia
Analysis

Arrests of radicals in Kazakhstan indicates growth in ISIS popularity in Central Asia

Kazakh authorities have reported the arrests of groups of suspected terrorists in major cities in both August and October of 2016. Examined in light of terror attacks in major cities in the country earlier this year, these developments are indicative of an increase in popularity of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Kazakhstan and the wider Central Asian region. Continue reading

Foiled attack shows shift in focus of Islamist extremists in Indonesia
Analysis

Foiled attack shows shift in focus of Islamist extremists in Indonesia

Early last month, Detachment 88, Indonesia’s counterterrorism unit, foiled an attempt by the Katibah Gigih Ramat (KGR) Cell to launch a rocket at Singapore’s Marina Bay from the island of Batam. The failed attempt indicates the rising popularity of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Indonesia and shows that Indonesian Islamist militants are becoming increasingly globally-oriented. It can be stated with moderate confidence that Jemaah Islamiyah does not continue to pose a security threat today, as it has been overshadowed by ISIS. Continue reading

Boko Haram negotiates release of Chibok schoolgirls
Analysis

Boko Haram negotiates release of Chibok schoolgirls

Abubakar Shekau, leader of the Nigerian insurgency group Boko Haram, has resurfaced in a YouTube video insisting on the release of the Chibok schoolgirls only if the Nigerian government agrees to a prisoner swap. I believe with high confidence that, due to a faction war currently taking place within Boko Haram and now the willingness to negotiate with the Nigerian government, Boko Haram is not growing stronger. Continue reading

Capture of Islamic State engineer likely to delay group’s WMD capability
Analysis

Capture of Islamic State engineer likely to delay group’s WMD capability

By Grant Barratt, CIB Middle East Desk* United States Special Operations forces captured the Islamic State’s (IS) chemical engineer in Iraq last month. It is stated with moderate confidence that the detainment of this individual will delay and heavily impact IS’s ability to pursue the deployment of a large-scale chemical attack. According to both Iraqi … Continue reading

Bundy militia group seen as too extreme by other right-wing groups
Analysis

Bundy militia group seen as too extreme by other right-wing groups

The Oath Keepers, a right-wing patriot group has denounced the Bundy militia, known as Citizens for Constitutional Freedom, and opposed the occupation of the Malheur Refuge. This development shows that the so-called Sovereign Citizens movement is broad in scope, and that individual groups such as the Citizens for Constitutional Freedom and the Oath Keepers do not share the same level of extremism. Continue reading

NATO’s military build-up in Eastern Europe aimed at deterring Russia
Analysis

NATO’s military build-up in Eastern Europe aimed at deterring Russia

If passed by Congress, a potential increase in US military spending has the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) planning its biggest military build-up in Eastern Europe since the Cold War, aimed at deterring Russia. This has arisen with no offensive movement in the Baltic States from Moscow and may undermine the security and peace of the region if Moscow reacts to the build-up. Continue reading

CIB Analysis: Juicio de amparo will slow extradition of ‘El Chapo’ to US
Analysis

CIB Analysis: Juicio de amparo will slow extradition of ‘El Chapo’ to US

Mexico’s Attorney General Arely Gómez was recently reported stating that the extradition of Sinaloa leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán could take up to a year to materialize due to numerous injunctions made by Guzmán’s lawyers. This additional time could help the Sinaloa Cartel maintain their cartel alliances and reduce the decline in power from losing one of their leaders. Continue reading