The Chanticleer Intelligence Brief consists of dedicated groups of analysts specializing in a variety of regions or subjects. They meet on a weekly basis to share developments in their respective fields of expertise and to constructively critique each other’s analyses.
• In the spring of 2020, the CIB senior analysts and their areas of expertise were:
EUROPE and NORTH AMERICA Section (Senior Analyst Rae McArthur, Head of Section)
Mike GOMPPER: Will Northern Ireland leave the United Kingdom?
Rick STORZIERI: Current and projected status of US-Mexican relations
Rae McARTHUR: The status of the Mexico-United States barrier
Kennedy SMITH: The Mexican government’s war on the drugs cartels
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC AFFAIRS Section (Senior Analyst Gabe Batten, Head of Section)
Michael BEATTY: Major developments in the Russian Armed Forces in 2020?
Hannah CLEGG: Political stability of the Russian state under Vladimir Putin
Gabe BATTEN: Russian military activities in the Arctic
RUSSIAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS Section
Alex CLARK: Russian activities in Iran and Iraq
Gabrielle HAWKINS: Current state of relations between Russia and Germany
Maxim KOZLOV: Russian-Chinese Relations
MIDDLE EAST Section (Senior Analyst Jake Viator, Head of Section)
Sandra ATAALLA: The dynamics of popular unrest in Egypt
Kaitlin PRESNELL: Will the war in Yemen end in 2020?
Jake VIATOR: Current and projected status of the Popular Mobilization Forces
Richard PIQUETT: The status of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq
Derek LAYTON: The status of the conflict between Turkey and the YPG
TRANSNATIONAL ISSUES Section (Senior Analyst Hannah Crumpton, Head of Section)
Hannah CRUMPTON: The current status of major health epidemics in 2020
Sophie SHERWOOD: The growth of the global renewable energy sector
ASIA Section (Senior Analyst Morgan-McKay Hoppmann, Head of Section)
Fabio MOLANO: The trajectory of bilateral relations between the US and China
Morgan-Mckay HOPPMANN: Ethnic tensions in Jammu and Kashmir
• In the spring of 2019, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
LEBANON Section (Senior Analyst Jacqueline Bibb, Head of Section)
Jacqueline BIBB: Will Saad Hariri remain in power in Lebanon through 2019?
Dillon GIBBONS: Is Hezbollah becoming stronger in 2019?
Jarame PARKER: How likely is a war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2019?
MIDDLE EAST Section (Senior Analyst Jared Ross, Head of Section)
Kaitlin PRESNELL: Who is winning the proxy war in Yemen?
Marissa MORINI: Will Syrian Kurdish separatists edge closer to independence in 2019?
Jared ROSS: Who will succeed Mahmoud Abbas as president of the PNA?
TRANSNATIONAL ISSUES Section (Senior Analyst Tyra Bjorlo, Head of Section)
Tyra BJORLO: How long before we see a female leader of a Islamist militant group?
Kyle BROSSARD: Is the war against maritime piracy being won?
Alan SICELOFF: Security Levels of US Power and Electric Infrastructure
EUROPE AND UNITED STATES Section (Senior Analyst Gabe Batten, Head of Section)
Gabe BATTEN: The current and projected status of the Yellow Vests Movement
Mike GOMPPER: Will the UK revoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union by May 1?
Maddy SCHOLAR: The impact of marijuana legalization on US national security
Jackson HAUF: Will US sanctions imposed on Russia be lifted in 2019?
ASIA Section (Senior Analyst Amber Fields, Head of Section)
Michael HABGOOD: Will popular unrest intensify in Iran in 2019?
Jeremy PEKOFF: Will a nuclear treaty be signed between the DPRK and the US this year?
Audrey OIEN: What is the current and projected state of Russian-Chinese relations?
Morgan CLASGENS: The current and projected status of the Pakistani Taliban
Amber FIELDS: Will the insurgency in southern Thailand dissipate in 2019?
LATIN AMERICA Section (Senior Analyst Kennedy Smith, Head of Section)
Ryan LAWRENCE: Which is the most powerful drug cartel in Mexico?
Kennedy SMITH: Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2019?
Joseph CAIN: Will the power of the ELN continue to grow in 2019?
Derrick STORZIERI: The Current and Projected State of US-Mexican Relations
• Our fall 2018 CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
Madison SCHOLAR: What is the current and projected status of the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico?
Clara COMISKEY: What is the current and projected status of the Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region?
Connor LEWIS: What is the current and projected status of Russian-Chinese relations?
Kelsey KEROUAC: What are the prospects for South Africa’s political stability in 2019?
Courtney WOODS: Will domestic ethnic unrest flare up in Kosovo or Macedonia in 2018?
Jared ROSS: Will the government of Benjamin Netanyahu survive in 2018?
Preston SPRADLEY: Is Colombia’s cocaine war intensifying in 2018?
Alex CLARK: What is the current and projected status of the Russian Armed Forces?
Gabe BATTEN: What is the likelihood of a significant military confrontation between India and Pakistan in 2018?
• In the spring of 2017, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AMERICAS SECTION (L. Loverin, Head of Section)
Joseph CAIN: Will relations between the United States and Cuba improve in 2018?
Lauren LOVERIN: US/Russia: Will the US lift its economic sanctions on Russia in 2018?
Rachel PANICHELLA: Which is the most powerful drug cartel in Mexico?
EUROPE SECTION (M. Gompper, Head of Section)
Clara COMISKEY: Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2018?
Mike GOMPPER: Will Ireland and the U.K. agree to create a soft border in 2018?
Ian RUSSICK: Will tension continue to rise in relations between Poland and the European Union?
MIDDLE EAST SECTION (N. Lake, Head of Section)
Nathan LAKE: Will the P5+1 continue to support the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018?
Monica FULMER: Will there be another Palestinian Intifada in 2018?
Jared ROSS: Will the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah continue in 2018?
ASIA AND AFRICA SECTION (F. Molano, Head of Section)
Cody BRONUSHAS: Is maritime piracy on the increase in Southeast Asia?
Kyle BROSSARD: Will ISIS’s cyber capabilities increase in 2018
Blake GUTBERLET: What is the current state of al-Shabaab?
Fabio MOLANO: What is the projected state of US-Chinese relations?
• In the fall of 2017, analysts worked on a special CIB project. Their areas of research were as follows:
Anthony HESS: Will China lead the future in renewable energy?
Allison REILLY: Is southern Africa heading toward destabilization?
Maeve STEWART: Is home-grown terrorism in the US a growing national security threat?
Katelyn MONTRIEF: How is Turkey’s political instability affecting NATO?
Madison NOWLIN: How is Sunni Islamism in the Middle East complicating US-Russian relations?
Matt POLOGE: How likely is a war involving North Korea?
• In the spring of 2017, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AFRICA DESK (J. Mansfield, Head of Desk)
Austin MAHON: Nigeria: Will the Nigerian government win its war against Boko Haram in 2017?
Casey MALLON: Libya: Will ISIS be wiped out in Libya in 2017?
Jake MANSFIELD: Central African Republic: Will a civil war erupt in the Central African Republic in 2017?
AMERICAS DESK (T. Bishop, Head of Desk)
Hannah GRIGGS: Colombia: Will the peace treaty between the government and the FARC hold in 2017?
Kiersten CHAMBERS: Venezuela: Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2017?
Tahleia BISHOP: United States/Climate Change: Will the US abandon the Paris Agreement on climate change?
EASTERN/SOUTHERN EUROPE DESK (J. Lee, Head of Desk)
Dylan FLEMING: Russia/United States: Will Russian-American relations continue to improve in 2017?
Jeremy LEE: Poland/European Union: Will relations between the EU and Poland worsen in 2017?
Troy RAMBSBACHER: Cyprus: Will Cyprus come closer to reunification in 2017?
WESTERN EUROPE DESK (K. Chambers, Head of Desk)
Caleb SOMMERS: United Kingdom: Will Northern Irish paramilitary groups become stronger in 2017?
Michael GOMPPER: United Kingdom: Will Scotland leave the UK before the UK leaves the EU?
Kayla CHAMBERS: France: Who will win the French presidential election of 2017?
MIDDLE EAST DESK (S.B., Head of Desk)
Maxwell KUHNS: Jabhat Fateh al-Sham: Will JFAS (a.k.a. al-Nusra Front) be defeated in Syria in 2017?
Antigua CLYBURN: Saudi Arabia: Will women gain more rights in Saudi Arabia in 2017?
IRAN DESK (P. Lewis, Head of Desk)
Preston LEWIS: Iran: Will Hassan Rouhani win a second term as Iran’s President in May 2017?
Jack LINCOLN: Iran: Will Iranian-American relations improve in 2017?
Ben DUNHAM: Iran: What is the current state of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps?
CHINA DESK (E. Winter, Head of Desk)
Charles LESPERANCE: China/Taiwan: Will China and Taiwan go to war in 2017?
Jennifer THORPE: China: Have Chinese cyber-capabilities increased in 2017?
Eric WINTER: Philippines/China/United States: Will the US-Philippine military alliance weaken and the Philippine-Chinese alliance deepen in 2017?
ASIA DESK (C. Kilgore, Head of Desk)
Connor KILGORE: Natural resources: Will construction of the TAPI natural gas pipeline proceed in 2017?
Matt POLOGE: North Korea: Will the North Korean regime remain stable in 2017?
Julia EMORY: Japan: Will Japan’s government manage to change Article 9 of the Constitution in 2017?
• In the fall of 2016, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AFRICA DESK (C. Kilgore, Head of Desk)
Blake Gutberlet: Has Boko Haram grown stronger in 2016?
Connor Kilgore: Will Nigeria remain Africa’s largest oil producer for the foreseeable future?
Jake Mansfield: Will South Sudan become more viable as an independent state in 2017?
Matthew Serenita: Is France winning the ground war against Islamist militants in West Africa?
AMERICAS DESK (E. Pait, Head of Desk)
Ethan Pait: Will the Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp be closed in 2017?
Denton Powe: Will Colombian cartels remain the world’s largest producers of cocaine in 2017?
Patrick Sullivan: Will gun-control legislation be introduced in the US in 2017?
ASIA AND EURASIA DESK (M. Jones, Head of Desk)
Ryan Haag: Has the stability of the North Korean government increased in 2016?
Michael Jones: How popular is ISIS in Central Asia?
Casey Mallon: Does Jemaah Islamiyah continue to pose a security danger today?
Madison Nowlin: How has Russia’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War affected its internal security?
MIDDLE EAST DESK (V. James, Head of Desk)
Victoria James: Have Islamist non-state actors come closer to developing CBRN weapons in 2016?
Ethan Leyshon: Will the prospect of an independent Kurdish state become viable in 2017?
Stephanie Nelson: Will Hamas and Fatah reunite in 2017?
Matthew Wagner: Is Iran or Saudi Arabia winning the proxy war in Yemen?
• In the spring of 2016, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AMERICAS DESK (D. Evans, Head of Desk)
Tyler Arnott specialized in Latin America with an emphasis on illicit trafficking and the informal economy.
Sarah Harvey specialized in Latin America with an emphasis on Colombia, Venezuela and Argentina.
Diana Evans specialized in security in the United States with an emphasis on homegrown terrorism.
Connor Kilgore specialized in the United States with an emphasis on energy security issues.
Joshua Mgrdechian specialized in security in the United States with an emphasis on border security.
MIDDLE EAST DESK (A. Corona, Head of Desk)
Grant Barratt specialized in the Middle East with an emphasis on the Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front.
Elizabeth Campbell specialized in the Near East with an emphasis on Turkish politics and security.
Amanda Corona specialized in the Middle East with an emphasis on Iran, Iraq and Syria.
Benjamin Malone specialized in the Middle East with an emphasis on Hezbollah activities in Lebanon.
EUROPE DESK (Β. Gutberlet, Head of Desk)
Emily Clingenpeel specialized in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Blake Gutberlet specialized in the Russian Federation with an emphasis on the Russian Naval Forces.
Jeremy Lee specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on Western European security issues.
Sheila Martínez specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on security issues in Spain.
Eva Ruiz specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on security issues in Spain.
Matthew Serenita specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on French security issues.
ASIA AND AFRICA DESK (R. Haag, Head of Desk)
Nick Catabay specialized in South Asia with an emphasis on Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Ryan Haag specialized in Southeast Asia with an emphasis on China and North Korea.
Amy Thomas specialized in Central and South Asia with an emphasis on Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
Matt Hayes specialized in East Africa, with an emphasis on the activities of paramilitary groups.
Kyle O’Neil specialized in Northeast Africa with an emphasis on Salafi Jihadism.
• Our fall 2015 founding membership consisted of:
Benjamin Malone (founder), Amanda Corona, Amy Thomas, Hannah Davis, Sarah Harvey, Samuel Casey, Elizabeth Campbell, Curran Hellgeth, Lainey Lewis, Devan Miller, Erik Rietman, James Holbrook, Samuel Gordon, Tyler Arnott, Ryan Marshall, Michael Sweeney, Kyle O’Neil, Matthew Serenita, Jeremy Lee, Blake Gutberlet, Joshua Mgrdechian.