The Chanticleer Intelligence Brief consists of dedicated groups of analysts specializing in a variety of regions or subjects. They meet on a weekly basis to share developments in their respective fields of expertise and to constructively critique each other’s analyses.
• Our fall 2018 CIB analysts and their areas of expertise are:
Maddison SCHOLAR: What is the current and projected status of the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico?
Clara COMISKEY: What is the current and projected status of the Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region?
Connor LEWIS: What is the current and projected status of Russian-Chinese relations?
Kelsey KEROUAC: What are the prospects for South Africa’s political stability in 2019?
Courtney WOODS: Will domestic ethnic unrest flare up in Kosovo or Macedonia in 2018?
Jared ROSS: Will the government of Benjamin Netanyahu survive in 2018?
Preston SPRADLEY: Is Colombia’s cocaine war intensifying in 2018?
Alex CLARK: What is the current and projected status of the Russian Armed Forces?
Gabe BATTEN: What is the likelihood of a significant military confrontation between India and Pakistan in 2018?
• In the spring of 2017, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AMERICAS SECTION (L. Loverin, Head of Section)
Joseph CAIN: Will relations between the United States and Cuba improve in 2018?
Lauren LOVERIN: US/Russia: Will the US lift its economic sanctions on Russia in 2018?
Rachel PANICHELLA: Which is the most powerful drug cartel in Mexico?
EUROPE SECTION (M. Gompper, Head of Section)
Clara COMISKEY: Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2018?
Mike GOMPPER: Will Ireland and the U.K. agree to create a soft border in 2018?
Ian RUSSICK: Will tension continue to rise in relations between Poland and the European Union?
MIDDLE EAST SECTION (N. Lake, Head of Section)
Nathan LAKE: Will the P5+1 continue to support the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018?
Monica FULMER: Will there be another Palestinian Intifada in 2018?
Jared ROSS: Will the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah continue in 2018?
ASIA AND AFRICA SECTION (F. Molano, Head of Section)
Cody BRONUSHAS: Is maritime piracy on the increase in Southeast Asia?
Kyle BROSSARD: Will ISIS’s cyber capabilities increase in 2018
Blake GUTBERLET: What is the current state of al-Shabaab?
Fabio MOLANO: What is the projected state of US-Chinese relations?
• In the fall of 2017, analysts worked on a special CIB project. Their areas of research were as follows:
Anthony HESS: Will China lead the future in renewable energy?
Allison REILLY: Is southern Africa heading toward destabilization?
Maeve STEWART: Is home-grown terrorism in the US a growing national security threat?
Katelyn MONTRIEF: How is Turkey’s political instability affecting NATO?
Madison NOWLIN: How is Sunni Islamism in the Middle East complicating US-Russian relations?
Matt POLOGE: How likely is a war involving North Korea?
• In the spring of 2017, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AFRICA DESK (J. Mansfield, Head of Desk)
Austin MAHON: Nigeria: Will the Nigerian government win its war against Boko Haram in 2017?
Casey MALLON: Libya: Will ISIS be wiped out in Libya in 2017?
Jake MANSFIELD: Central African Republic: Will a civil war erupt in the Central African Republic in 2017?
AMERICAS DESK (T. Bishop, Head of Desk)
Hannah GRIGGS: Colombia: Will the peace treaty between the government and the FARC hold in 2017?
Kiersten CHAMBERS: Venezuela: Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2017?
Tahleia BISHOP: United States/Climate Change: Will the US abandon the Paris Agreement on climate change?
EASTERN/SOUTHERN EUROPE DESK (J. Lee, Head of Desk)
Dylan FLEMING: Russia/United States: Will Russian-American relations continue to improve in 2017?
Jeremy LEE: Poland/European Union: Will relations between the EU and Poland worsen in 2017?
Troy RAMBSBACHER: Cyprus: Will Cyprus come closer to reunification in 2017?
WESTERN EUROPE DESK (K. Chambers, Head of Desk)
Caleb SOMMERS: United Kingdom: Will Northern Irish paramilitary groups become stronger in 2017?
Michael GOMPPER: United Kingdom: Will Scotland leave the UK before the UK leaves the EU?
Kayla CHAMBERS: France: Who will win the French presidential election of 2017?
MIDDLE EAST DESK (S.B., Head of Desk)
Maxwell KUHNS: Jabhat Fateh al-Sham: Will JFAS (a.k.a. al-Nusra Front) be defeated in Syria in 2017?
Antigua CLYBURN: Saudi Arabia: Will women gain more rights in Saudi Arabia in 2017?
IRAN DESK (P. Lewis, Head of Desk)
Preston LEWIS: Iran: Will Hassan Rouhani win a second term as Iran’s President in May 2017?
Jack LINCOLN: Iran: Will Iranian-American relations improve in 2017?
Ben DUNHAM: Iran: What is the current state of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps?
CHINA DESK (E. Winter, Head of Desk)
Charles LESPERANCE: China/Taiwan: Will China and Taiwan go to war in 2017?
Jennifer THORPE: China: Have Chinese cyber-capabilities increased in 2017?
Eric WINTER: Philippines/China/United States: Will the US-Philippine military alliance weaken and the Philippine-Chinese alliance deepen in 2017?
ASIA DESK (C. Kilgore, Head of Desk)
Connor KILGORE: Natural resources: Will construction of the TAPI natural gas pipeline proceed in 2017?
Matt POLOGE: North Korea: Will the North Korean regime remain stable in 2017?
Julia EMORY: Japan: Will Japan’s government manage to change Article 9 of the Constitution in 2017?
• In the fall of 2016, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AFRICA DESK (C. Kilgore, Head of Desk)
Blake Gutberlet: Has Boko Haram grown stronger in 2016?
Connor Kilgore: Will Nigeria remain Africa’s largest oil producer for the foreseeable future?
Jake Mansfield: Will South Sudan become more viable as an independent state in 2017?
Matthew Serenita: Is France winning the ground war against Islamist militants in West Africa?
AMERICAS DESK (E. Pait, Head of Desk)
Ethan Pait: Will the Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp be closed in 2017?
Denton Powe: Will Colombian cartels remain the world’s largest producers of cocaine in 2017?
Patrick Sullivan: Will gun-control legislation be introduced in the US in 2017?
ASIA AND EURASIA DESK (M. Jones, Head of Desk)
Ryan Haag: Has the stability of the North Korean government increased in 2016?
Michael Jones: How popular is ISIS in Central Asia?
Casey Mallon: Does Jemaah Islamiyah continue to pose a security danger today?
Madison Nowlin: How has Russia’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War affected its internal security?
MIDDLE EAST DESK (V. James, Head of Desk)
Victoria James: Have Islamist non-state actors come closer to developing CBRN weapons in 2016?
Ethan Leyshon: Will the prospect of an independent Kurdish state become viable in 2017?
Stephanie Nelson: Will Hamas and Fatah reunite in 2017?
Matthew Wagner: Is Iran or Saudi Arabia winning the proxy war in Yemen?
• In the spring of 2016, the CIB analysts and their areas of expertise were:
AMERICAS DESK (D. Evans, Head of Desk)
Tyler Arnott specialized in Latin America with an emphasis on illicit trafficking and the informal economy.
Sarah Harvey specialized in Latin America with an emphasis on Colombia, Venezuela and Argentina.
Diana Evans specialized in security in the United States with an emphasis on homegrown terrorism.
Connor Kilgore specialized in the United States with an emphasis on energy security issues.
Joshua Mgrdechian specialized in security in the United States with an emphasis on border security.
MIDDLE EAST DESK (A. Corona, Head of Desk)
Grant Barratt specialized in the Middle East with an emphasis on the Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front.
Elizabeth Campbell specialized in the Near East with an emphasis on Turkish politics and security.
Amanda Corona specialized in the Middle East with an emphasis on Iran, Iraq and Syria.
Benjamin Malone specialized in the Middle East with an emphasis on Hezbollah activities in Lebanon.
EUROPE DESK (Β. Gutberlet, Head of Desk)
Emily Clingenpeel specialized in Eastern Europe and Russia.
Blake Gutberlet specialized in the Russian Federation with an emphasis on the Russian Naval Forces.
Jeremy Lee specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on Western European security issues.
Sheila Martínez specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on security issues in Spain.
Eva Ruiz specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on security issues in Spain.
Matthew Serenita specialized in the European Union with an emphasis on French security issues.
ASIA AND AFRICA DESK (R. Haag, Head of Desk)
Nick Catabay specialized in South Asia with an emphasis on Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Ryan Haag specialized in Southeast Asia with an emphasis on China and North Korea.
Amy Thomas specialized in Central and South Asia with an emphasis on Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
Matt Hayes specialized in East Africa, with an emphasis on the activities of paramilitary groups.
Kyle O’Neil specialized in Northeast Africa with an emphasis on Salafi Jihadism.