Revised Trump administration statements indicate possible policy change on climate change
Analysis

Revised Trump administration statements indicate possible policy change on climate change

Regardless of past indications, the Trump administration’s stance toward the Paris Climate Agreement appears to have shifted following an open letter from several of the country’s largest companies and wealthiest investors. This shift potentially indicates an inclination by the Trump administration to acquiesce to pressure from corporate interests. In light of this, it can be stated with moderate confidence that President Donald Trump will not remove America from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2018. Continue reading

Civil war highly likely in the Central African Republic despite UN active peacekeeping
Analysis

Civil war highly likely in the Central African Republic despite UN active peacekeeping

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, the African Union, and the European Union’s French Mission have all participated in efforts to prevent armed conflict between Muslim and Christian rebel groups in the Central African Republic. However, it can be stated with high confidence that a civil war will flare up in the country in 2017. Continue reading

North Korea responds to sanctions by the UN Security Council
Analysis

North Korea responds to sanctions by the UN Security Council

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) recently passed new sanctions against North Korea as a result of Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear test on September 9, 2016. The sanctions resulted in a verbose response by the North Korean government directed at the UNSC and the United States (US). It can be established with high confidence that such rhetoric is usual and sanctions will not have any serious effect for months, thus solidifying the view that the North Korean regime will remain stable throughout 2016. Continue reading

Nigeria exempted from OPEC oil production cut
Analysis

Nigeria exempted from OPEC oil production cut

On Wednesday November 30, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to a cut in oil production. A stipulation of the deal was that Nigeria, a member of OPEC, is to be exempted from the oil cut. With Nigeria’s reprieve and Angolan participation, it can be said with moderate confidence that, depending on the severity of the Angolan production cut, Nigeria may once again become Africa’s top oil producer by January of 2017. Continue reading

Iraqi Kurdish leader signals independence talks with Baghdad after Mosul falls
Analysis

Iraqi Kurdish leader signals independence talks with Baghdad after Mosul falls

With the joint operation to clear the Islamic state from its territorial control of Mosul in full swing, a prominent Iraqi Kurdish leader has signified that the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) will pressure Baghdad for its independence following the battle. This seems to signify that, despite cooperation between the KRG and the Iraqi Government in their joint endeavor to clear ISIS from Mosul, the autonomous Kurdish government is still intent on seeking an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Continue reading

Arrests of radicals in Kazakhstan indicates growth in ISIS popularity in Central Asia
Analysis

Arrests of radicals in Kazakhstan indicates growth in ISIS popularity in Central Asia

Kazakh authorities have reported the arrests of groups of suspected terrorists in major cities in both August and October of 2016. Examined in light of terror attacks in major cities in the country earlier this year, these developments are indicative of an increase in popularity of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Kazakhstan and the wider Central Asian region. Continue reading

CIB analyst refines skills by studying in Russia
interviews

CIB analyst refines skills by studying in Russia

In the 2015-2016 academic year, Coastal Carolina University student Emily Clingenpeel was an analyst in the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief’s Europe Desk. The Intelligence and National Security Studies major and Global Studies Minor specializes in Eastern European affairs, with an emphasis on Russia. This fall, Clingenpeel took an extra step in her specialization, by going to Russia to study. She is currently a student at the St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, where she focuses on Russian Language study, through a program provided by the American Institute of Foreign Study (AIFS). We caught up with her during a rare break from her many trips throughout Russia and Eastern Europe and asked her a few questions about her study-abroad experience and its connection to her CIB training. Continue reading