Under the supervision of the Center for Applied Intelligence (CAI), the CIB has published a new report examining how the tactics of criminal organizations are evolving and discussing adaptation strategies in response to the challenge. The project was commissioned by Homeland Security Investigations, which is the principal investigative arm of the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Among other things, HSI is responsible for investigating transnational crime and threats, specifically those criminal organizations that exploit the global infrastructure through which international trade, travel, and finance move.
Entitled “Adaptation Strategies in Transnational Drug Trafficking”, the report (PDF) is the product of a semester-long open-source research project that was conducted by the CIB’s Applied Intelligence Project. The report was sparked by HSI’s call for original research that addresses and evaluates the adaptive strategies employed by Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs), specifically Mexican, Central, and South American Cartels, which have been designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) by the United States.
The 30-page report outlines TCOs are likely to modify their drug trafficking and smuggling methodologies and tactics to continue the flow of illicit drugs, including fentanyl, methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine, into the United States. It concludes that TCOs continue to rely on a diversified trafficking architecture that combines land, maritime, communications, and financial methods. The latter demonstrate that cartel trafficking blends illicit activity into legitimate transportation, commercial, communications, and financial systems rather than relying on a single smuggling methodology.
The report also identifies increased domestic development of precursor chemicals and reduced reliance on foreign suppliers as particularly plausible responses to sustained interdiction. It notes that cartels are likely to continue to diversify entry routes toward the eastern United States and northern border, reduce dependence on Chinese and Indian precursor suppliers by developing more precursors themselves, and potentially expand drug markets into Europe, Africa, Australia, and other parts of Asia. Lastly, the report includes a host or recommendations that includes an emphasis on proactive disruption of the networks that enable drug production, transportation, communications, and financial activity, rather than relying primarily on drug seizures.
The report was authored by Critical Mission Center directors Ryan Kelly, Connor Ellinghaus, and Emily Falcon. Sections of the report were written by Senior Analysts Clay Brode and Reed Miller. In addition to the authors, Deputy Directors Sophia Batchelder, Jack Goldberg, and Ryan Campbell, and Support Officers Morgan Scales, Alexa Cannella, Kyron Edwards, Arsen Berisha, Abigail Gross, Madison Conway, Olivia Connell, Nick Bernardini, Aedan Finn, and John Gabrielli served as Senior Analysts on this project. Lilyanne Sweat, McKenzie Shakespeare, and Preston Martz served as a Quality Assurance Officers. The editorial overview and supervision was conducted by CIB Faculty Mentor Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis and CCU Intel alumna Hannah Albert.
The CIB wishes to thank wishes to thank Eia Richardson, James Hooper, and David Salazar for their invaluable guidance throughout this project. We are also grateful to Michael Connelly and Redding Kessinger for their advice during the research stages of this project. We are also grateful for the assistance of CCU Edwards College Dean Dr. Claudia Bornholdt, CAI Director Dr. Jonathan Smith, and volume editor Hannah Albert.
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