Under the supervision of the Center for Applied Intelligence (CAI), the CIB has published a new report on the timely topic of leadership succession in Iran. The project was commissioned by  Cynthia “Cindy” Storer, a legendary Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst who is currently featured in the exhibits hall of the International Spy Museum in Washington DC.

Entitled “Leadership Succession in Iran: Threats and Opportunities for the United States”, the report (PDF) is the product of a semester-long open-source research project that was conducted by the CIB’s Applied Intelligence Project. The report was sparked by the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the United States Intelligence Community, which notes that Iran could face a succession crisis at any time, given that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who has been serving in the position since 1989, is in his mid-80s. “His eventual passing could challenge a system characterized by elite factionalism that has only undergone a single supreme leader transition,” according to the Threat Assessment.

The 40-page AIP report contains the outcome of a “forces and factors” assessment of the past impact of various Iranian institutional actors on the selection for the supreme leader, which the authors used as a basis on which to partially extrapolate the impact of these actors in a future process of selection for supreme leader. It also features a “Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats” (SWOT) evaluation of the list of possible successors Supreme Leader Khamenei and assesses the opportunities and challenges that a leadership succession would pose for the United States.

The report was authored by Critical Mission Center directors Christopher Brophy, Nevaeh Deichert, Samuel Luckett, Brandon Macallair, and Lilyanne Sweat. The “Possible Successors” section was authored by Senior Analyst Molly Jones and the “Challenges and Unlikely Scenarios” section was authored by Deputy Director Preston Martz. Deputy Directors Ryan Kelly, Ryan Lindsey, Nathan Wynkoop and Ryan Ignacz, and Support Officers Sophia Batchelder, Mckenzie Shakespeare, Charles Wiggins, Connor Andersen, Connor Ellinghaus, Lex Martin, Anthony Bazzinotti, Emma Plutnicki, Morgan Scales, Madison Conway, Jeremy Kerr, and Zachary Yazdzik, served as Senior Analysts on this project. Hannah Albert served as a Quality Assurance Officer. The editorial overview and supervision was conducted by CIB Faculty Mentor Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis and CAI GRU Group researcher Isabella Lafranchise.

The CIB wishes to thank wishes to thank Cindy Storer, CCU Professor of Practice Mark Chandler, CCU Department of History Chair Dr. Christopher Gunn, and AIP Quality Control Officer Hannah Albert. We are grateful for the assistance of CCU Edwards College Dean Dr. Claudia Bornholdt, CAI Director Dr. Jonathan Smith, and volume editor Isabella Lafranchise.