On November 13, Senior Analysts in the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief’s Applied Intelligence Project (AIP) presented their research on Iran to Cynthia “Cindy” Storer, a legendary Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst who is currently featured in the exhibits hall of the International Spy Museum in Washington DC. Among numerous career accomplishments, Ms. Storer is the recipient of an intelligence medal for analytical breadth and expertise, and was part of a majority female team of CIA analysts who contributed to the successful hunt for al-Qaeda co-founder Usama bin Laden. Ms. Storer is also featured in the recent book The Sisterhood: The Secret History of Women at the CIA, by award-winning author Liza Mundy.

The AIP presentation was the culmination of an effort initiated in August of this year, with the collaboration of Ms. Storer, who tasked the Applied Intelligence Project with investigating the problem of leadership succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community notes that Iran could face a succession crisis at any time, since “Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has been serving in the position since 1989 and is in his mid-80s”. Khamenei’s “eventual passing could challenge a system characterized by elite factionalism that has only undergone a single supreme leader transition”, the document notes.

The question that the CIB’s Senior Analysts had to tackle was: “what are the forces and factors that could shape the process and possible outcomes of the succession in Iran, and what threats and opportunities might the process and possible outcomes pose for the U.S. and its allies?” This topic is of considerable interest to the CIA, given its responsibility for eliminating the element of surprise in executive-level decisions of the United States government.

A written product that accompanies the presentation will be published later this year and will be made available online, as well as in hard copy. The CIB wishes to thank the Center for Applied Intelligence and the Edwards College for Humanities and Fine Arts for their support of the its work.