News

Current Desk Standings for the Awards

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS AWARD STANDINGS as of 11/07/2018

  1. Madison Scholar (5)
  2. Connor Lewis (1)
  3. Kelsey Kerouac (3)
  4. Jared Ross (2)

* Brackets contain the analyst’s standing in the previous week.


INTELLIGENCE FORECAST AWARD STANDINGS as of 11/07/2018

  1.   2 (0) Madison Scholar
  2.   0 (0) Augustine Batten
  3.   0 (0) Alex Clark
  4.   0 (0) Clara Comiskey
  5.   0 (0) Kelsey Kerouac
  6.   0 (0) Connor Lewis
  7.   0 (0) Jared Ross
  8.   0 (0) Blake Spradley
  9.   0 (0) Courtney Woods

* Brackets contain last week’s scores

FORECASTS BY DATE (most recent first) in the Fall 2018 semester

2018 1112 | Madison Scholar | Mexico | PENDING
El Chapo will not receive the death penalty if convicted before December 1.

2018 1108 | Alex Clark | Russian Armed Forces | PENDING
The United States will not pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by December 1, 2018.

2018 1104 | Connor Lewis | Russia/China | PENDING
While in China on November 5-7, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev will sign at least 3 bilateral agreements with Chinese officials.

2018 1102 | Madison Scholar | Mexico | SUCCESSFUL
El Chapo’s trial will not be pushed back and will start as scheduled on November 5.

2018 1102 | Jared Ross | Israel | PENDING
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not call for elections before December 1, 2018.

2018 1031 | Madison Scholar | Mexico | PENDING
Dámaso López Núñes will testify for the prosecution at the trial of ‘El Chapo’.

2018 1026 | Augustine Batten | India/Pakistan | PENDING
There will be another firefight leading to the death of a radicalized scholar in the Kashmir region of India.

 


FORECASTS BY DATE (most recent first) in the Spring 2018 semester (FINAL)

2018 0412 | Joseph Cain | Americas Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will support the nomination of DCI Mike Pompeo for secretary of state today.

2018 0412 | Joseph Cain | Americas Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
The Senate floor will approve the nomination of DCI Mike Pompeo for secretary of state by April 22.

2018 0406 | Monica Fulmer | Middle East  Section | SUCCESSFUL
The Palestinian death toll in Gaza will rise to at least 5 by the end of today.

2018 0402 | Fabio Molano | Asia Section |  UNSUCCESSFUL
The US will propose to impose more tariffs on China by April 22, 2018.

2018 0329 | Monica Fulmer | Middle East  Section | SUCCESSFUL
At least three Palestinians will be shot dead by the IDF at the Gaza Border before Saturday.

2018 0327 | Clara Comiskey | Europe  Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
At least one African Union member country will make a monetary donation towards the operationalization of the G5 Joint Sahel Force by April 22, 2018.

2018 0319 | Nathan Lake | Middle East  Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
The European Union will hold a vote to economically sanction Iran for its ballistic missiles/ballistic missile program by April 22.

2018 0311 | Joseph Cain | Americas Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
At least two members of the current Council of State will step down alongside Raúl Castro by April 22, 2018.

2018 0311 | Joseph Cain | Americas Section | SUCCESSFUL
Miguel Díaz-Canel will replace Raúl Castro as President of Cuba by April 22, 2018.

2018 0305 | Nathan Lake | Middle East  Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
By April 22, 2018, the United States will either withdraw from the JCPOA or propose a supplementary deal to amend it.

2018 0305 | Nathan Lake | Middle East  Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
By April 22, 2018, US President Donald Trump will tweet about the JCPOA or Iran’s nuclear program in a manner that advances his agenda of scrapping or amending the deal.

2018 0227 | Fabio Molano | Asia Section | SUCCESSFUL
By April 22, 2018, the Chinese congress will vote to remove the presidential term limit, which allow president Xi Jingping to serve as China’s president indefinitely.

2018 0223 | Clara Comiskey | Europe Section | UNSUCCESSFUL
At least one European Union member country (that is not currently involved in the Sahel region) will deploy troops to the Sahel region by April 22, 2018.

2018 0223 | Clara Comiskey | Europe Section | SUCCESSFUL
At the European Commission conference on February 23, the European Union will announce they are allocating at least $25 million in funding to their current budget for the G5 Sahel Force

2018 0201 | Fabio Molano | Asia Section | SUCCESSFUL
By Monday, February 5, the value of bitcoin will drop below $8,000.00 from its current value of $12,457.37.

 


FORECASTS BY DATE (most recent first) in the Fall 2017 semester FINAL

2017 1130 | Allison Reilly | SUCCESSFUL
Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai will comment on Emmerson Mnangagwa’s Cabinet choices by December 3.

2017 1129 | Matt Pologe | UNSUCCESSFUL
The United States will place more sanctions on North Korea before December 4.

2017 1126 | Allison Reilly | SUCCESSFUL
Emmerson Mnangagwa will announce his cabinet member choices by December 3.

2017 1123 | Allison Reilly | UNSUCCESSFUL
Opposition party leader Morgan Tsvangirai and President Emmerson Mnangagwa will meet face to face by December 2.

2017 1121 | Allison Reilly | UNSUCCESSFUL
By November 28, South African President Jacob Zuma will openly state his support for the resignation or impeachment of Robert Mugabe.

2017 1121 | Allison Reilly | SUCCESSFUL
By November 28, Emmerson Mnangagwa will make a public address in Zimbabwe.

2017 1121 | Allison Reilly | SUCCESSFUL
Emmerson Mnangagwa will be sworn in as the next President of Zimbabwe by November 25.

2017 1119 | Allison Reilly | SUCCESSFUL
Zimbabwe will begin the impeachment process for Robert Mugabe within the next 48 hours.

2017 1112 | Madison Nowlin | SUCCESSFUL
The Russian government will announce new legislation concerning American media in Russia before Monday, November 20, 2017.

2017 1110 | Maeve Stewart | SUCCESSFUL
By the end of November 2017, there will be more flyers posted on Coastal’s campus regarding the white race and/or white supremacy.

2017 1109 | Madison Nowlin | UNSUCCESSFUL
The meeting outlined below will increase tensions between the two leaders after discussion on Syria.

2017 1109 | Madison Nowlin | SUCCESSFUL
Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet one-on-one in Vietnam during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting.

2017 1101 | Matthew Pologe | UNSUCCESSFUL
The DPRK will either launch a missile, or conduct a nuclear test, by November 14, 2017.

2017 1026 | Maeve Stewart | UNSUCCESSFUL
There will be an organized far-right event before 11/25/2017, that will result in people being sent to the hospital.

2017 1024 | Stosh Hess | SUCCESSFUL
The 19th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee will choose Xi Jinping to lead as President for the next five years.


FORECASTS BY DATE (most recent first) in the Spring 2017 semester FINAL

2017 0413 | Matt Pologe | Asia | UNSUCCESSFUL
The DPRK will utilize their Punggye-ri command center for a launch or test on Kim Il- sung’s birthday on April 15.

2017 0413 | Kiersten Chambers | Americas | UNSUCCESSFUL
Venezuela will announce that it will leave the Organization of American States and Mercosur by April 18, 2017.

2017 0413 | Troy Ramsbacher | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
There will be a terrorist-style attack in Turkey by April 18, 2017.

2017 0413 | Troy Ramsbacher | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will win the ‘Yes’ vote in the April 16th Referendum.

2017 0412 | Dylan Fleming | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
Due to the high tensions over the Syrian conflict, the US will not place further sanctions on Russia by April 18.

2017 0409 | Matt Pologe | Asia | SUCCESSFUL
North Korea will attempt to launch another missile/projectile by April 18.

2017 0330 | Jake Mansfield | Africa | UNSUCCESSFUL
By April 13, at least 25 Central Africans, or foreign aid workers, will be killed in the country by armed rebel factions.

2017 0330 | Jake Mansfield | Africa | UNSUCCESSFUL
The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (UNMISCA) will receive less than 20% of its humanitarian needs, valued at $399.5 million, by April 16.

2017 0329 | Troy Ramsbacher | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
The Greek Cypriot Parliament will grant permits to Exxon Mobil for exploration of natural resources in the Exclusive Economic Zone in Cyprus by April 18, 2017.

2017 0329 | Troy Ramsbacher | East/South Europe | UNSUCCESSFUL
If Recep Tayyip Erdogan successfully wins the April 16, 2017, referendum, there will be violent protests in Turkey.

2017 0329 | Dylan Fleming | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will not meet face to face by April 18.

2017 0329 | Matt Pologe | Asia | SUCCESSFUL
North Korea will attempt to launch another missile/projectile by April 18.

2017 0320 | Mike Gompper | Western Europe | SUCCESSFUL
By April 17, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will have triggered or invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.

2017 0316 | Troy Ramsbacher | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
Cypriot leaders Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci will not meet to discuss the Cyprus issue under UN sponsorship before the end of March.

2017 0314 | Casey Mallon | Africa | UNSUCCESSFUL
By April 17, Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army will launch a military campaign to move across the Libyan coastline with the intent of capturing Tripoli.

2017 0313 | Matt Pologe | Asia | SUCCESSFUL
North Korea will release the 9 Malaysians restricted from leaving the country before April 18, 2017.

2017 0310 | Dylan Fleming | Eastern/Southern Europe | SUCCESSFUL
The United States will not lift or ease any sanctions on Russia by the end of March 2017.

2017 0306 | Matt Pologe | Asia | UNSUCCESSFUL
By April 15, Air Koryo, the state-owned national carrier airline of North Korea, will no longer be allowed to fly into Malaysia.

2017 0306 | Matt Pologe | Asia | SUCCESSFUL
North Korea will launch another missile/projectile between March 8 and April 15.

2017 0302 | Matt Pologe | Asia | UNSUCCESSFUL
It will be determined by the Malaysian government that Siti Aisyah and Doan Thi Huong should be tried together. This will be determined no later than April 18.

2017 0301 | Matt Pologe | Asia | UNSUCCESSFUL
The United Nations Security Council will impose sanctions on North Korea for having VX nerve agents in its possession. These sanctions will be imposed on no later than March 25.

2017 0224 | Erik Winter | Asia | SUCCESSFUL
I predict that China will agree to talks about a legally binding code of conduct in the South China Sea by March 5, 2017.

2017 0223 | Julia Emory | Asia | UNSUCCESSFUL
I predict that, during the LDP’s March 5, 2017, Convention, the LDP will once again propose revisions to Article 9 to shift the Japanese Armed force from a self-defense force to a national force.

2017 0223 | Matt Pologe | Asia | UNSUCCESSFUL
Kim Jong-un will admit to DPRK involvement in the assassination of Kim Jong-nam before March 10, 2017.

2017 0223 | Jeremy Lee | East/South Europe | SUCCESSFUL
Poland will not comply with the recommendations given to them by the European Union that are due at the end of February

2017 0222 | Michael Gompper | Western Europe | UNSUCCESSFUL
Within the next 48 hours the British House of Lords will conclude its deliberations on the Brexit bill regardless of amendments.

2017 0221 | Austin Mahon | Africa | SUCCESSFUL
I predict with high confidence that President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria will not return to Nigeria from his extended medical vacation in London by Thursday at 12:00pm EST.

 

 

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