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CIB Analytical Areas

Please choose up to three topics to cover for this semester, and email them to Dr. J., by order of preference. If you do not see a topic that interests you, feel free to email Dr. J. a customized topic for his approval. Topics in red typeface have been taken and are not available. Priority will be given to existing CIB Analysts who want to repeat last semester’s topic.

EUROPE

Austria: Will the popularity of the radical right continue to grow in Austria in 2017?
Cyprus: Will Cyprus come closer to reunification in 2017? [Troy Ramsbacher]
European Union: Will the European Union lose more member-states in 2017? [Caleb Sommers]
France: Who will win the French presidential election of 2017? [Kayla Chambers]
Germany: Will the Alternative fur Deutschland continue to grow in strength in 2017?
Greece: Will the leftwing government of Greece survive in 2017?
Holland: Will Holland edge closer to leaving the European Union in 2017?
Hungary: Will Jobik continue to grow in strength in Hungary in 2017?
Immigration: Are we seeing the end of the immigration crisis in Europe?
Italy: Will Italy’s economy edge closer to defaulting in 2017?
Macedonia: Will the political uncertainty worsen in Macedonia in 2017?
Montenegro: Will Montenegro edge closer to joining NATO in 2017?
Poland: Will the Law and Justice Party remain in power in Poland in 2017? [Mary Casey]
Poland/European Union: Will relations between the EU and Poland worsen in 2017? [Jeremy Lee]
Ukraine/Russia: Will the Minsk II agreement in Ukraine collapse in 2017?
United Kingdom: Will Northern Irish paramilitary groups become stronger in 2017?
United Kingdom: Will Scotland edge closer to leaving the United Kingdom in 2017? [Michael Gomper]

MIDDLE EAST

Al-Nusra Front: Will the al-Nusra Front be defeated in Syria in 2017? [Max Kuhns]
Bahrain: Will popular unrest continue in Bahrain?
Iran: Will Hassan Rouhani win a second term as Iran’s President in May 2017? [Preston Lewis]
Iran: Will Iranian-American relations improve in 2017? [Jack Lincoln]
Iran: What is the current state of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps? [Ben Dunham]
Iraq: What are the prospects of an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq in 2017?
Islamic State: Will ISIS lose its remaining territory in 2017? [Shannon Brophy]
Israel/Palestine: How likely is a war between Israel and the Palestinians in 2017? [Victoria James]
Saudi Arabia: Will women gain more rights in Saudi Arabia in 2017? [Antigua Clyburn]
Syria: Will the Kurds edge closer to an independent state in Syria in 2017?
Turkey: Will the Turkish state become less democratic in 2017?
Turkey: Will there be another coup or uprising in Turkey in 2017?
Yemen: Who is winning the war in Yemen?

CENTRAL ASIA AND THE ASIAN SUBCONTINENT

Afghanistan: Has the strength of the Islamic State increased in Afghanistan?
Afghanistan: Will the war between the Afghan government and the Taliban end in 2017?
Bangladesh: Will terrorism dissipate in Bangladesh in 2017?
India/Pakistan: What is the likelihood of a military conflict between India and Pakistan in 2017?
India/United States: What will India’s relations with the US look like with Donald Trump as President?
Kazakhstan: Has the strength of Islamism increased in Kazakhstan? [Michael Jones]
Natural resources: Will construction of the TAPI natural gas pipeline proceed in 2017? [Connor Kilgore]
Uzbekistan: What does the future hold for Uzbekistan after the death of Islam Karimov?

SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China: Has the Uighur independence movement grown stronger in 2017? [Maddie Nowlin]
China: Which country will become China’s primary gas supplier?
China: Who will win the Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Election in March 2016?
China: Will there be a military confrontation between China and the US in 2017?
China: Have Chinese cyber-capabilities increased in 2017? [Jenny Thorpe]
China/Taiwan: Will China and Taiwan go to war in 2017? [Charles Lesperance]
China/United States: Will Chinese-American relations improve in 2017?
China/United States: Will Chinese-American trade agreements collapse in 2017?
Indonesia: Will Islamism continue to rise in Indonesia?
Japan: Will Japan’s government manage to change Article 9 of the Constitution in 2017? [Julie Emory]
Myanmar: Will the conflict in Myanmar’s northeast escalate in 2017?
North Korea: Will the North Korean regime remain stable in 2017? [Matt Pologe]
Philippines/United States: Will the US-Philippine military alliance end in 2017? [Eric Winter]
Philippines: Has the Duterte government in the Philippines become more stable in 2017?
South Korea: Will South Korea’s political crisis continue after the impeachment of its president?
Thailand: Will Thailand’s government remain in power in 2017?
Thailand: Will the insurgency in southern Thailand dissipate in 2017?

RUSSIA

Russia/China: What is the state of Russian-Chinese relations in 2017?
Russia/Turkey: Will Russia’s relations with Turkey continue to improve in 2017?
Russia/Ukraine: Will the Minsk II agreement collapse in 2017?
Russia/United States: Will Russian-American relations continue to improve in 2017? [Dylan Flemming]
Russia/West: Will the Western sanctions imposed on Russia be lifted in 2017?
Russian Caucasus: What is the state of the Islamist movement in the Russian Caucasus?

NORTHERN AFRICA

Egypt: Has the government of Egypt become more stable in 2017?
Egypt: Has the strength of the Islamic State increased in Egypt?
Libya: Will ISIS be wiped out in Libya in 2017? [Casey Mallon]
Libya: Will the civil war in Libya end in 2017?
Tunisia: Will the Tunisian government become more stable in 2017?

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Burundi: Are we likely to see a civil war in Burundi in 2017?
Central African Republic: Will a civil war erupt in the Central African Republic in 2017? [Jake Mansfield]
Congo Democratic Republic: Will we see more or less violence in DR Congo in 2017?
Lord’s Resistance Army: Will the Lord’s Resistance Army be defeated in Uganda in 2017?
Mali: Will the war in Mali end in 2017?
Nigeria: Will the Niger Delta Avengers grow stronger in 2017?
Nigeria: Will the Nigerian government win its war against Boko Haram in 2017? [Austin Mahon]
Somalia: Will al-Shabaab grow stronger in 2017?
South Africa: Will the ANC’s popularity continue to decline in South Africa in 2017?
South Sudan: Will there be a civil war in South Sudan in 2017?
Zimbabwe: Will ZANU-PF lose power in Zimbabwe in 2017?

NORTH AMERICA

Cuba/United States: Will relations between the United States and Cuba improve in 2017?
Mexico: How strong is the Sinaloa Cartel after the arrest of ‘El Chapo’?
United States/China: Will there be a military confrontation between the US and China in 2017?
United States/China: Will US-Chinese relations improve in 2017?
United States/China: Will American-Chinese trade agreements collapse in 2017?
United States/Climate Change: Will the US abandon the Paris Agreement on climate change? [Tahleia Bishop]
United States/Iran: Will American-Iranian relations improve in 2017? [Jack Lincoln]
United States/Mexico: Will a wall begin to be built on the US-Mexican border in 2017?
United States/Mexico: Will relations between Mexico and the United States improve in 2017?
United States/Philippines: Will the US-Philippine military alliance end in 2017? [Eric Winter]
United States/Russia: Will Russian-American relations continue to improve in 2017? [Dylan Flemming]
United States/Taiwan: Will the United States officially recognize Taiwan in 2017?
United States/TPP: Will the United States withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017?
United States: Are the anti-government and militia movements growing in strength?

SOUTH AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

Brazil: Will the political crisis continue in Brazil after 2017?
Colombia: Will the peace treaty between the government and the FARC hold in 2017? [Hannah Griggs]
Cuba: Will relations between Cuba and the United States improve in 2017?
Venezuela: Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2017? [Kiersten Chambers]

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