News

CIB Analytical Areas

Please choose up to three topics to cover for this semester, and email them to Dr. J., by order of preference. If you do not see a topic that interests you, feel free to email Dr. J. a customized topic for his approval. Topics in red font have been taken and are not available. Priority will be given to existing CIB Analysts who want to repeat last semester’s topic.


EUROPE


Albania – Will Albania come closer to joining the European Union in 2019?
Andorra
Austria – Will the far-right Freedom Party’s popularity increase in 2019?
Belarus – Will we see large-scale civil unrest in Belarus in 2019?
Belgium – Will Belgium experience another Islamist terrorist attack in 2018?
Bosnia and Herzegovina – Will the fragile shared governing arrangement remain in Bosnia in 2018?
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus – Will Cyprus come closer to reunification in 2019?
Czech Republic – Will the Communist Party continue to grow in strength?
Denmark – Will the Liberal Alliance and Conservative coalition government survive in 2019?
Estonia – Will Russian-Estonian relations continue to be tense in 2019?
Finland
France – Is France winning the war against Islamist radicalism in Africa?
Georgia – Will the breakaway State of Alania join the Russian Federation in 2019?
Germany – Will Angela Merkel’s coalition continue to suffer electoral setbacks in 2019?
Germany – Will the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland grow stronger in 2019?
Greece – Will the left-wing Syriza governing coalition remain in power in 2018?
Hungary – Will the far-right Jobik party continue to rule in 2018?
Iceland
Ireland – Will Ireland and the United Kingdom agree to create a soft border in 2018?
Italy – Will the coalition government remain in power in Italy in 2018?
Kosovo – Will domestic ethnic unrest flare up in Kosovo in 2018?
Latvia
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macedonia – Will Macedonia agree to change its name in 2018?
Macedonia – Will domestic ethnic unrest flare up in Macedonia in 2018?
Malta
Moldova
Monaco
Montenegro
Netherlands
Norway
Poland – Will tension continue to rise in relations between Poland and the European Union?
Portugal
Romania – Will the current government survive in 2018?
San Marino
Serbia – Will the pro-EU Progressive Party remain in power in 2018?
Serbia – Will border disputes Kosovo flare up in in 2018?
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain – Will the Catalan separatist movement’s protests subside in 2018?
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine – Will the Minsk II agreement survive in 2019?
United Kingdom – Will the UK and the EU reach a mutually acceptable Brexit agreement in 2018?
United Kingdom/Ireland – Will Ireland and the United Kingdom agree to create a soft border in 2018?
Vatican City


RUSSIA


Russia – Will the state of the Russian economy improve in 2019?
Russian Caucasus
– What is the state of the Islamist movement in the Russian Caucasus?
Russia/China – What is the current and projected state of Russian-Chinese relations?
Russia/United States – What is the current and projected state of Russian-US relations?
Russia/United States – Will US sanctions imposed on Russia be lifted in 2018?
Russia/Turkey – Will Russia’s relations with Turkey improve in 2018?
Russia/Ukraine –
Will the Minsk II agreement over Ukraine survive in 2018?


MIDDLE EAST


Bahrain – Will the crackdown on Shias continue unabated in 2019?
Iran – Will the Iran nuclear deal hold in 2018 without US support?
Iran – Will popular unrest intensify in Iran in 2018?
Iraq – Will Kurdish separatists edge closer to an independence in 2019?
Iran/Turkey – Will Iran’s relations with Turkey improve in 2018?
Israel/Palestine – Will there be another Palestinian Intifada in 2018?
Israel/Palestine – How likely is a war between Israel and the Palestinians in 2018?
Israel – Will the government of Benjamin Netanyahu survive in 2018?
Palestine – Will the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah continue in 2018?
Jordan – Will Jordan experience a large-scale terrorist attack in 2018?
Kuwait
Lebanon – Will the coalition government of Saad Hariri survive in 2018?
Lebanon – Is Hezbollah becoming stronger in 2018?
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia – Will the power of King Salman be seriously challenged in 2018?
Saudi Arabia – Will Mohammad bin Salman remain seated as crown prince in 2018?
Syria – Will the Syrian Civil War end in 2018?
Syria – Will Kurdish separatists edge closer to independence in 2018?
Turkey/United States – Will Turkey’s relations with the US improve in 2018?
Turkey/Israel – Will Turkey’s relations with Iran improve in 2018?
Turkey/Russia – Will Turkey’s relations with Russia improve in 2018?
Turkey/NATO – Will Turkey leave NATO?
United Arab Emirates
Yemen – Who is winning the proxy war in Yemen?


CENTRAL ASIA AND THE ASIAN SUBCONTINENT


Afghanistan – Is the strength of the Islamic State increasing in 2018?
Afghanistan – Is the strength of the Taliban increasing in 2018?
Azerbaijan – Will hostilities flare up in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2018?
Azerbaijan – Will the power of the ruling family of President Heydar Aliyev be challenged?
Bangladesh: Will terrorism dissipate in Bangladesh in 2018?
India/Pakistan – What is the likelihood of a military conflict between India and Pakistan in 2019?
India/China – Will border tensions between India and China intensify in 2019?
Kazakhstan – Is Islamic radicalism on the rise in Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan – Will the power of President Nursultan Nazarbayev be challenged?
Kyrgyzstan –
Natural resources – Will construction of the TAPI natural gas pipeline continue in 2018?
Pakistan – Will relations between Pakistan and the United States improve in 2018?
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan – Will president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov’s authority be challenged in 2018?
Uzbekistan – What does the future hold for Uzbekistan after the death of Islam Karimov?


SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE FAR EAST


Brunei‎ –
Cambodia‎ –
East Timor‎‎ –
Indonesia – Will Islamism continue to rise in Indonesia in 2019?
Laos‎‎ –
Japan – Will Japan’s government manage to change Article 9 of the Constitution in 2019?
Malaysia‎‎ – Will Malaysia’s new government manage to solidify its power in 2018?
Myanmar – Will the conflict in Myanmar’s northeast escalate in 2018?
North Korea – Will the North Korean regime remain stable in 2018?
North Korea/United States – Will a nuclear agreement be finalized between North Korea and the US in 2018?
Philippines/United States – Will the US-Philippine military alliance deepen in 2018?
Philippines – Will the Duterte government survive in 2018?
Philippines – Will the Islamist insurgency in the Philippines intensify in 2018?
Singapore‎‎ –
South Korea/North Korea – Will Korean relations improve in 2018?
Thailand – Will Thailand’s government remain in power in 2018?
Thailand – Will the insurgency in southern Thailand dissipate in 2018?
Vietnam‎‎ – Will the government’s anti-corruption campaign intensify in 2018?


CHINA


China – Will the Uighur independence movement grow stronger in 2018?
China – Who will be China’s primary gas supplier by 2020?
China/India – Will border tensions between India and China intensify in 2018?
China/Taiwan – Will China and Taiwan go to war in 2018?
China/Russia – What is the current and projected state of Russian-Chinese relations?
China/United States – What is the current and projected state of US-Chinese relations?
China/United States – Will the trade war between China and American continue in 2018?


NORTHERN AFRICA


Algeria
Egypt
– Will Egypt launch an all-out war on ISIS in Sinai in 2018?
Egypt
 – Has the government of Egypt become more stable in 2018?
Egypt – Has the strength of the Islamic State increased in Egypt?
Libya – Who is winning the civil war in Libya?
Morocco – Will we see a fare up of political protests in 2019?
Morocco – What are the prospects for formal independence of Western Sahara in 2019?
Sudan – What is the projected state of human rights in South Sudan?
Sudan/South Sudan – Will the rapprochement between Sudan and South Sudan continue in 2018?
Tunisia: Will the Tunisian government become more stable in 2018?


SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA


Benin
Burkina Faso
Burundi – Is political violence increasing in Burundi in 2018?
Cameroon – Will protests by the country’s Anglophone minority continue in 2018?
Cameroon – What is the strength of Boko Haram in Cameroon in 2018?
Cape Verde
Central African Republic – What is the likelihood of a civil war in the CAR in 2019?
Chad – Will national elections be held in Chad in 2019?
Chad – What is the strength of Boko Haram in Chad in 2018?
Comoros
Congo (Brazzaville)
Congo (Democratic Republic) – What is the current state of the M23 terrorist group?
Côte d’Ivoire
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea – What are the prospects for closer relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia?
Ethiopia – What are the prospects for closer relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea?
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya – Will political violence intensify in Kenya in 2019?
Liberia
Madagascar
Mali – Is the government winning the war against Islamist and separatist militants?
Mali – Will the country be stable after the national election?
Mauritania – What are the prospects for democracy in Mauritania in 2019?
Mauritius
Niger – Is the government winning the war against Islamist militants?
Nigeria – Is the government winning the war against Boko Haram?
Rwanda – What are the prospects for democracy under President Paul Kagame?
Sahel Region – What is the current and projected status of the Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region?
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia – What is the current state of al-Shabaab?
Somalia – What are the prospects for Puntland’s continued autonomy?
South Sudan: Will there be a civil war in South Sudan in 2018?
Tanzania – What are the prospects for Tanzania’s energy sector?
The Gambia
Togo
Uganda – What is the current state of the Allied Democratic Forces of Uganda?


SOUTHERN AFRICA


Angola – What are the prospects for Angola’s energy sector?
Botswana – Will political violence flare up in Botswana in 2018?
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique – Will terrorist violence continue in Mozambique in 2018?
Namibia – Will political and economic stability continue in Namibia in 2018?
South Africa – What are the prospects for South Africa’s economy in 2019?
South Africa – What are the prospects for South Africa’s political stability in 2019?
South Africa – Will the African National Congress split in 2018?
Swaziland
Zambia – What are the prospects for democracy under President Edgar Lungu?
Zimbabwe – Will there be a civil war in Zimbabwe in 2019?
Zimbabwe – Will Mugabe loyalists return to positions of power in 2019?


NORTH AMERICA


Canada – Will relations between Canada and the United States worsen in 2018?
Cuba/United States – Will relations between the United States and Cuba improve in 2019?
Mexico – What is the current and projected status of the Sinaloa cartel in Mexico?
Mexico – Which is the most powerful drug cartel in Mexico?
United States – Is the American far right growing in strength?
United States/China – What is the projected state of US-Chinese relations?
United States/China – Will Chinese-American trade agreements collapse in 2018?
United States – Will the Donald Trump administration survive 2018?
United States/Iran – Will there be a war between the US and Iran in 2018?
United States/Mexico – Will a wall begin to be built on the US-Mexican border in 2018?
United States/Mexico – Will relations between Mexico and the United States improve in 2018?
United States/North Korea – Will a nuclear agreement be finalized between North Korea and the US in 2018?
United States/Philippines – Will the US-Philippine military alliance deepen in 2018?
United States/Russia – Will US sanctions imposed on Russia be lifted in 2018?
United States/Taiwan – Will the United States officially recognize Taiwan in 2018?
United States/TPP – Will the United States withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018?
United States/Turkey – Will Turkey’s relations with the US improve in 2018?


CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA


Argentina – Will the coalition government of Mauricio Macri survive in 2018?
Belize
Bolivia – Will the government of Evo Morales survive in Bolivia in 2018?
Brazil – What are the prospects for the Brazilian economy?
Chile
Colombia – Is Colombia’s cocaine war intensifying in 2018?
Colombia – Will the government of Iván Duque annul the peace treaty with the FARC?
Costa Rica
Ecuador – Will Ecuador surrender Wikileaks founder Julian Assange to UK authorities n 2018?
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
Honduras
Nicaragua – Will Daniel Ortega remain president of Nicaragua in 2018?
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela – Will the Venezuelan government remain in power in 2018?
Venezuela – Will there be a civil war in Venezuela in 2018?

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